When will Clark County population exceed 3M? That date has changed

Clark County is now expected to break 3 million residents by 2045, according to a new report from The Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV.

Last year’s report had Clark County breaking the 3 million threshold in 2042. Does that mean growth is slowing?

Andrew Woods, director of the CBER, said this year’s estimate and current projections are still in line with the center’s five-year forecast average, which has the county hitting 3 million residents somewhere between 2040 and 2045. But Woods said the center is keeping an eye on a number of issues that could depress population and economic growth in the region or put pressure on current residents.

“More concerning are the changing economic conditions, slowing economy and impact of immigration policy which gives us some caution moving forward and we are keeping an eye on it,” he said. “We won’t know until we run the numbers again next year. We’re also keeping an eye on the aftermath of the wildfires in California if that spurs increases in migration and we are looking at some modeling on the side to better understand what that could mean for domestic migration.”

Clark County currently has roughly 2.39 million residents, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to the report, which dates back to 2015, the high water mark for people moving to the county was 2016, when 57,566 people were added to the population. The CBER estimates by 2060 the overall population of the county will be 3.2 million — part of an overall slowdown in growth that the entire country and world is expected to encounter. The Census Bureau estimates the country’s population will peak around 2080.

By 2045, according to the report, Hispanics will make up approximately 40 percent of the population of Clark County, up from around 34 percent today. Thanks to an aging population, health care is expected to lead the area’s job growth in the coming decades and to pass retail as Southern Nevada’s second-largest employment sector.

By 2060, close to one in four residents of the county (23.4 percent) will be 65 or older, versus 16.5 percent in 2025, the CBER report stated.

The report did acknowledge that future forecasts could also be impacted by unexpected changes in migration trends. “Recent slowdowns in both interstate and international migration suggests the need to monitor shifting patterns closely,” the CBER said in a news release for the report. “While the current forecast offers a reliable roadmap, our annual updates will continue to refine the picture as we move forward.”

Woods said in the release for the report that some serious headway has been made on a number of issues facing the county as the population has grown, one of the biggest being its water usage.

“Thanks in part to forecast-informed planning, Southern Nevada has reduced its use of Colorado River water by 26 percent over the past 20 years while accommodating 900,000 new residents,” he said. “That kind of resource planning will be even more important in the years ahead.”

Contact Patrick Blennerhassett at pblennerhassett@reviewjournal.com.